Michael Dodd moved from Chicago to the Phoenix area six years ago. He left the area for job opportunities, a lower cost of living and to escape crime rates. He noticed there was nowhere in the area to get a piece of home: Chicago style popcorn. Characterized by its cheese and caramel coatings, often mixed together for a salty-and-sweet flavor, it’s a standard snack in the midwest.
So a month ago, he decided to start his own business, Maddie B’s Popcorn, named after his 4-year-old daughter. Following the guidance of a friend who runs a popcorn shop in Chicago. He ordered all the necessary supplies, perfected his recipes and opened up shop. He shares a storefront with a soul food restaurant in Glendale, a Phoenix suburb.
In just a month, he’s found success with customers, many of whom are from the midwest like him. And his business isn’t the only one capitalizing on the influx of midwest expats. Chicago deep dish pizza spot Lou Malnati’s has four franchises in the Phoenix area, their only outposts beyond Chicagoland. Hotdog joint Portillo’s has four locations in the area, too.
“There are a lot of Chicago to Phoenix groups on Facebook talking about food,” said Dodd. “If you’re from there or the surrounding area—even Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas City—you’re tuned in. We’ve got the same taste buds.”
Dodd is one of millions who have moved to Arizona in the past decade drawn by the promise of jobs, a better cost of living, space and amenities. These factors made Arizona the second-fastest growing state per capita in 2019, after Idaho. They have fueled an outmigration from states in the Northeast and Midwest to booming areas of the South and West.
States in the Northeast and Midwest see population loss to bustling areas in the South and West
Data source: U.S. Census 2019 State-to-state migration flows
The biggest factor in interstate moves is distance, according to Richard Wright, a migration geographer at Dartmouth College. That’s why some of the strongest migration trends are for neighboring states—for instance, New Yorkers moving to New Jersey. Understandably, moving somewhere nearby is less intensive and cheaper than moving somewhere far. In some cases, like interstate moves within the same metropolitan area, it does not even require a new job.
But for longer distance moves, many factors are at play. The most salient are economic: mainly job opportunities, but also cost of living at the destination.
In a study with a colleague, Wright found that workers with degrees are more likely to settle in a new destination, especially young adults. This is especially true for those in STEM professions, who travel among metropolitan centers with abundant specialized jobs. This group tends to move the farthest, finds Wright.
Generally, a healthy job market will bring in workers without degrees, too. This is true all years for this group, according to Wright, compared to college-educated workers who only tend to follow general job trends during recessionary years.
The fastest growing economies are able to attract both groups. In places like Texas, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, an increase in jobs specialized and not, have fueled thousands of newcomers each year, often from more expensive states like New York, California and Illinois.
Exact migration trends differ by state
Adapted from Pasha ’s D3.js visual on bl.ocks.org
“As of late, buyers from California have really picked up en masse,” said Morgan Hodges, a realtor at MoJo group in Scottsdale, an upscale Phoenix suburb. “We’ve also started to draw more from the Northeast than in years past.”
In Arizona, locals note the construction boom, influx of call center employment, manufacturing operations and the expansion of corporate offices for companies like Intel and State Farm insurance as boons to the job market in recent years.
It’s why Dodd moved to Phoenix in the first place.
“A buddy of mine told me ‘come to Phoenix, they’re always hiring,’” said Dodd. “So me and my wife came down with one bag, stayed on a friend’s couch, and found jobs.” He got his commercial driver’s license and started driving asphalt trucks, essential for all the new infrastructure being built.
Like in Dodd’s case, it helps to have a friend in town: at least 5 new movers to Arizona I spoke with had some connection, even if distant. Still, these connections don’t play as much of a role in interstate migration than international moves.
“Social networks are at work more generally, but they’re less important for internal migration than migration to the U.S.,” said Wright. “Family connections make up 66% of inflows to the U.S.” It’s why some cities are known for certain ethnic communities, like Minneapolis for its Somalian American population.
Warm weather also plays a role for some, especially retirees. It contributes to Arizona’s popularity, but also explains the growth of a place like Florida, which does not have as many economic incentives.
Where are people from your state moving?
Migrants from selected state in 2019
“Arizona has always drawn quite a bit from Chicago,” said Hodges of MoJo realty. “What probably started it was the fact that the Cubs and other teams played their baseball spring training here, and it brought people in for vacations, but they realized how much they liked it. The flight is just a bit longer than the flight to Florida.”
Beyond these motivations, some have more personal reasons for moving. For Dodd, in addition to job opportunities, part of why he left was to escape the gun violence in Chicago’s South Side where he grew up. He feels a lot safer in his new home.
“I wear flip-flops every day here,” said Dodd, pointing to his Nike slides. “I don’t feel like I have to run from anything.”
Though these moving trends represent 2019 data, it’s probable that more left states like New York during the pandemic. The state lost over 125,000 residents between July 2019 and 2020, according to the Census Bureau. COVID-19 fatalities by that time only account for about a quarter of that figure.
“2020 being an outlier in almost every possible way, including in the moving industry,” said Voyo Popovic of Piece of Cake Moving and Storage, a moving company in New York City. “It particularly affected the demand for long distance moves. Demand was over double what it was in 2019.”
Popovic says the most popular destinations for his clients were Florida, California and Texas, in that order, followed by North Carolina and Georgia. Many of his clients were inspired by their newfound ability to work remotely.
Though these trends are holding strong, they're always subject to change in the longer term. As newcomers drive up prices in places like Arizona, the current patterns might slow. Dodd, for one, welcomes that.
"The prices are going up now because everybody's coming here," said Dodd. "We need people to stop coming," he joked.